Citations
Rainfall thresholds based on intensity for flash floods in the Manizales River, Colombia
Umbrales de precipitación basados en intensidad para crecidas torrenciales en la quebrada Manizales, Colombia.
Open | Download
Issue
Section
Articles
How to Cite
Rainfall thresholds based on intensity for flash floods in the Manizales River, Colombia. (2020). Revista EIA, 17(33), 33003 pp. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.24050/reia.v17i33.1302
Dimensions
license
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Copyright statement
The authors exclusively assign to the Universidad EIA, with the power to assign to third parties, all the exploitation rights that derive from the works that are accepted for publication in the Revista EIA, as well as in any product derived from it and, in in particular, those of reproduction, distribution, public communication (including interactive making available) and transformation (including adaptation, modification and, where appropriate, translation), for all types of exploitation (by way of example and not limitation : in paper, electronic, online, computer or audiovisual format, as well as in any other format, even for promotional or advertising purposes and / or for the production of derivative products), for a worldwide territorial scope and for the entire duration of the rights provided for in the current published text of the Intellectual Property Law. This assignment will be made by the authors without the right to any type of remuneration or compensation.
Consequently, the author may not publish or disseminate the works that are selected for publication in the Revista EIA, neither totally nor partially, nor authorize their publication to third parties, without the prior express authorization, requested and granted in writing, from the Univeridad EIA.
Show authors biography
Where the traditional approach in establish alert thresholds for Early Warning Systems (EWS) relies on rainfall depth-duration curves, in the context of watersheds characterised by short runoff response time and in the absence of weather radar data, such practise cannot be implemented effectively. Hence, this research establishes alert threshold based on real-time rainfall measurement correlation over a catchment between headwaters and stages observed downstream in absence of rainfall depth-duration data. The Manizales River catchment (Caldas, Colombia) has presented flash flood events that have been aggravated by urbanization of the area. The distributed hydrological model TETIS was implemented using local rainfall distribution patterns to establish overland flow. The 2DH hydraulic flow model was based on IBER that determined 3 risk levels. The study suggests that then catchment response is highly sensitive to rainfall intensity changes rather than precipitation depth over time. Hence a specific methodology based on 10 minute cumulative mobile rainfall depth over time was used to establish rainfall thresholds for the EWS of the Manizales watershed.
Article visits 670 | PDF visits 430
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
- Alcaldía de Manizales (2014) Gestión del Riesgo Memoria Histórica 2001 - 2013, Gestión del Riesgo Manizales. Available at: http://www.gestiondelriesgomanizales.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=102%3A2001-2013&catid=45%3Amemoria-historica&Itemid=221 (Accessed: 26 November 2018).
- Aristizábal, M. (2015) ‘La quebrada Manizales, quebrada ambientalmente por la legalidad e ilegalidad de los vertimientos’, Summa luris, 3(1), pp. 207–233.
- Ávila, A. D., Carvajal, Y. E. and Justino, F. (2015) ‘Representative rainfall thresholds for flash floods in the Cali river watershed, Colombia’, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 3(6), pp. 4095–4119. doi: 10.5194/nhessd-3-4095-2015.
- Bladé, E., Cea, L., Corestein, G., Escolano, E., Puertas, J., Vázquez-Cendón, E., Dolz, J. and Coll, A. (2014) ‘Iber: herramienta de simulación numérica del flujo en ríos’, Revista Internacional de Métodos Numéricos para Cálculo y Diseño en Ingeniería, 30(1), p. 10.
- Candela, A. and Aronica, G. T. (2016) ‘Rainfall thresholds derivation for warning pluvial flooding risk in urbanised areas’, E3S Web of Conferences, 7, p. 18016. doi: 10.1051/e3sconf/20160718016.
- Cannon, S. H., Gartner, J. E., Wilson, R. C., Bowers, J. C. and Laber, J. L. (2008) ‘Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California’, Geomorphology, 96(3–4), pp. 250–269. doi: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.03.019.
- Cea, L. and Bladé, E. (2008) ‘Modelización matemática en lecho fijo del flujo en ríos. Modelos 1D y 2D en régimen permanente y variable’, in Jornadas Técnicas sobre Hidráulica Fluvial. Madrid: CEDEX-Ministerio de Fomento, pp. 1–30.
- Collier, C. G. (2007) ‘Flash flood forecasting: What are the limits of predictability?’, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133(October), pp. 937–948. doi: 10.1002/qj.
- Corpocaladas and IDEA-UNAL (2012) Aplicación de la modelación hidrológica distribuida de tipo conceptual en el departamento de Caldas para eventos extremos. Manizales.
- Corpocaladas and IDEA - UNAL (2012) Aplicación de la modelación hidrológica distribuida de tipo conceptual en el departamento de Caldas para eventos extremos. Manizales.
- Corpocaldas (2011) Plan de Acción Inmediato Cuenca Quebrada Manizales. Manizales.
- Diakakis, M. (2012) ‘Rainfall thresholds for flood triggering. The case of Marathonas in Greece’, Natural Hazards, 60(3), pp. 789–800. doi: 10.1007/s11069-011-9904-7.
- Georgakakos, K. P. (1995) ‘Real-time prediction for flood warning and management’, U.S- Italy Research workshop on the Hydrometeorology, Impacts, and Management of Extreme Floods. Perugia (Hydrometeorology, Impact, and Management of Extreme Floods), p. 9.
- Golian, S., Saghafian, B., Elmi, M. and Maknoon, R. (2011) ‘Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for flood forecasting: evaluating different methodologies for modelling rainfall spatial correlation (or dependence)’, Hydrological Processes. Wiley-Blackwell, 25(13), pp. 2046–2055. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7956.
- Golian, S., Saghafian, B. and Maknoon, R. (2010) ‘Derivation of Probabilistic Thresholds of Spatially Distributed Rainfall for Flood Forecasting’, Water Resources Management. Springer Netherlands, 24(13), pp. 3547–3559. doi: 10.1007/s11269-010-9619-7.
- IDEA and Corpocaldas (2015) Centro de Datos e Indicadores Ambientales de Caldas (CDIAC), Generador de indicadores de clima.
- Mancini, M., Mazzetti, P., Nativi, S., Rabuffetti, D., Ravazzani, G., Amadio, P. and Rosso, R. (2002) ‘Definizione di soglie Pluviometrihe di piena per la realizzazione de un sistema di allertamento in tempo reale per il bacino dell’arno a monte di firenze’, in XVIII convegno nazionale di idraulica e costruzioni idrauliche, Potenza. Potenza.
- Martina, M., Todini, E. and Libralon, A. (2006) ‘A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning’, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci, 10, pp. 413–426.
- Mogil, H. M., Monro, J. C. and Groper, H. S. (1978) ‘NWS’ s Flash Flood warning and Disaster preparedness Programs’, Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 59(6).
- Montesarchio, V., Lombardo, F. and Napolitano, F. (2009) Rainfall thresholds and flood warning: an operative case study, Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
- Montesarchio, V., Napolitano, F., Rianna, M., Ridolfi, E., Russo, F. and Sebastianelli, S. (2015) ‘Comparison of methodologies for flood rainfall thresholds estimation’, Natural Hazards, 75(1), pp. 909–934. doi: 10.1007/s11069-014-1357-3.
- Moore, R. (2002) ‘Aspects of uncertainty, reliability and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar’, in Bogardi, J. and Kundzewicz, Z. (eds) Risk, reliability and uncertainty and robustness of water resources system. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 30–40.
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOOA (2012) Guía de referencia para sistemas de alerta temprana de crecidas repentinas 2012. Edited by University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Estados Unidos.
- Norbiato, D., Borga, M. and Dinale, R. (2009) ‘Flash flood warning in ungauged basins by use of the flash flood guidance and model-based runoff thresholds’, Meteorological Applications. Wiley-Blackwell, 16(1), pp. 65–75. doi: 10.1002/met.126.
- La Patria (2017) Lluvias causan emergencias en el suroriente de Manizales, La Patria.com.
- Quintero, J. J. (2013) Diagnóstico de la gestión integral del riesgo por inundaciones y avenidas torrenciales en ríos urbanos del departamento de Caldas, Universidad Católica de Manizales. Universidad Católica de Manizales. doi: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004.
- Rincón, D. F., Vélez, J. J. and Chang, P. (2015) ‘Spatio-temporal description of the rainfall in the andean city of Manizales (Colombia) for storm design’, in 36th IAHR World Congress 28 June – 3 July, 2015, The Hague, the Netherlands. Hague: IAHR, p. 7.
- Sánchez, J., Mejía Fernández, F. and Zambrano, J. (2018) ‘Sistema Integrado de Monitoreo Ambiental de Caldas – SIMAC’, Boletín Ambiental Instituto de Estudios Ambientales IDEA - Sede Manizales 147, May, p. 19.
- Santos, M. and Fragoso, M. (2016) ‘Precipitation thresholds for triggering floods in the Corgo basin, Portugal’, Water (Switzerland), 8(9). doi: 10.3390/w8090376.
- Sene, K. (2008) Flood Warnning, Forecasting and Emergency Response. Springer.
- Serna, A. (2012) ‘A orillas del riesgo en la quebrada Manizales’, La Patria, 25 April.
- Unesco and Omm (2012) International Glossary of hydrology, Chair, Publications Board. Geneva, Switzerland.
- US Army Corps of Engineers (2010) HEC-RAS River Analysis System Hydraulic Reference Manual. Davis.
- Vélez, J. J. and Botero, A. (2011) ‘Estimación del tiempo de concentración y tiempo de rezago en la cuenca experimental urbana de la quebrada San Luis, Manizales’, Dyna. Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 78(165), pp. 58–71.
- Vélez, J. J., Puricelli, M., López Unzu, F. and Francés, F. (2009) ‘Parameter extrapolation to ungauged basins with a hydrological distributed model in a regional framework’, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, pp. 229–246.
- Wu, S. J., Hsu, C. T., Lien, H. C. and Chang, C. H. (2015) ‘Modeling the effect of uncertainties in rainfall characteristics on flash flood warning based on rainfall thresholds’, Natural Hazards, 75(2), pp. 1677–1711. doi: 10.1007/s11069-014-1390-2.
