An agent-based microsimulation model for COVID-19 dissemination in Medellín-Colombia

Un modelo de microsimulación basado en agentes para la propagación del COVID-19 en Medellín-Colombia

Published 2021-05-31

Incidencia del tipo de infectado en el escenario 2. Un modelo de microsimulación basado en agentes para la propagación del COVID-19 en Medellín-Colombia
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An agent-based microsimulation model for COVID-19 dissemination in Medellín-Colombia. (2021). Revista EIA, 18(36), 36005 pp. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.24050/reia.v18i36.1501
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Cristian Giovanny Gómez Marín
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Jose David Mosquera Tobón
Conrado Augusto Serna-Urán
Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano, Medellín, Colombia
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Cristian Giovanny Gómez Marín,

Estudiante Doctorado Ingeniería-Industría y Orgnaizaciones

Conrado Augusto Serna-Urán,

Conrado Augusto. Serna-Urán. Ingeniero Industrial, PhD, , Jefe de Departamento de Calidad y Producción, Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano,  Calle 73 No. 76A - 354, Vía al Volador, tel 4405100 opc 9 ext 5295. Cédula de ciudadanía: 15488758. Fecha de nacimiento: 28-09-1977.

Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) at December 31ths of 2019 in China it quickly spread to more than 200 countries around the word. Government on affected countries have taken actions such as social distancing in order to decrease the COVID-19 spreading rate. As a way to evaluate how effective are such actions, we design an agent-based microsimulation model that allows for representing the COVID-19 spreading in Medellín, Colombia. Accordingly, we reproduce the number of cases and deaths caused by the COVID-19 according to Medellín-real data by using the proposed model. Also, we test our model with two scenarios: first one with real government actions and second one without any government actions in Medellín-Colombia. Our model results show that early-public-health policies allows for flatting the curve of the COVID-19 spreading in contrast to the scenario without restrictions. As future work, we will include more clusters—e.g., leisure clusters, transport clusters—and the dynamic of the foreign COVID-19 cases.

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