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Use of the Holt-Winters Model as a strategy for predicting environmental conditions during the cocoa storage process
Uso del Modelo de Holt-Winters como estrategia para la predicción de condiciones ambientales durante el proceso de almacenamiento del Cacao
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Use of the Holt-Winters Model as a strategy for predicting environmental conditions during the cocoa storage process. (2022). Revista EIA, 19(38), 3820 pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.24050/reia.v19i38.1593
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The project arises as a response to the business challenge presented by the company Chocolate Girones before the University - Company - State Committee (CUUES) and the Office for the Transfer of Research Results (OTRI), which expresses the need to have a basic system technology with the capacity to monitor and manage the cocoa traceability process during the storage and manufacture of chocolate. In view of the above, the objective of this article is to propose the use of the Holt-Winters model as a strategy to predict the behavior of temperature, relative humidity and dew point temperature that could be present in the process of storage of the cocoa bean, incorporating the use of analysis techniques supported in time series, thereby facilitating better control and monitoring of the quality of the bean during its stay in the winery. According to the results obtained, the proposed model allowed to predict the behavior of variables such as temperature, relative humidity and dew temperature, which play a fundamental role in the quality of the grain, as a strategy for the control of fungi and mold that could reach to emerge in the bean during storage, because cocoa is a hygroscopic product. Additionally, the proposed model can be considered as a very important prediction tool during the cocoa traceability process, reaching adjustment levels higher than 0.8, accompanied by a very low standard error of estimation and with a confidence level of 95 %.
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