CONDITIONAL VOLATILITY OF COLOMBIAN GOVERNMENTAL FIXED INCOME SECURITIES AS A PREDICTOR OF SHORT-TERM RETURNS (VOLATILIDAD CONDICIONAL DE LOS TíTULOS DE RENTA FIjA DEL GOBIERNO COLOMBIANO COMO PREDICTOR DE LOS RETORNOS DE CORTO PLAZO)
CONDITIONAL VOLATILITY OF COLOMBIAN GOVERNMENTAL FIXED INCOME SECURITIES AS A PREDICTOR OF SHORT-TERM RETURNS (VOLATILIDAD CONDICIONAL DE LOS TíTULOS DE RENTA FIjA DEL GOBIERNO COLOMBIANO COMO PREDICTOR DE LOS RETORNOS DE CORTO PLAZO)
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According to literature, the long-maturity forward rates have information about the structure of the expected short-term returns. This paper finds that the conditional volatility factor also has information for predicting the term premium in the six-month expected returns with different maturities.That is, including conditional volatility allows capturing a risk factor consistent with the agent’s expectations. A slow mean-reverting processis also found across different maturities, which is the case of the governmental fixed income securities. In fact, the power of fore casting changes from a six-month to a three-year forward period, at six-month steps according to the mean-reverting tendency which also implied that its predictive power improves at longer forecasting horizons. On the other hand,it presents evidence about the Colombian markets crash in May 2006, which generated special conditions that impacted the market’s behavior and the agent’srisk tolerance.
Resumen: De acuerdo con la literatura las tasas de interés futuras de largo plazo ofrecen información relevante que las convierte en un buen predictor de la estructura de retornos de corto plazo. Este artículo encuentra que el factor de volatilidad condicional posee información para predecir la prima a plazo con intervalos de seis meses para diferentes vencimientos. En otras palabras, incluirla volatilidad condicional como factor permite captarlas señales de riesgo en consonancia con las expectativas de los agentes. Se evidencia, además, un proceso lento de reversión a la media para diferentes vencimientos en los títulos gubernamentales, lo cual incide sobre la capacidad de predicción, que en este caso muestra ser mayor para vencimientos más tardíos. Por otra parte, se presenta evidencia sobre la caída del mercado colombiano en mayo de 2006, hecho que generó condiciones especiales de operación, además de impactar sobre la percepción de riesgo de los agentes.
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