EL CARBÓN COLOMBIANO Y EL MODELO DE HOTELLING (COLOMBIAN COAL AND HOTELLING MODEL)
EL CARBÓN COLOMBIANO Y EL MODELO DE HOTELLING (COLOMBIAN COAL AND HOTELLING MODEL)
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En este artículo se presenta una descripción de la relación existente entre el pensamiento económico y los recursos naturales, en especial, los no renovables. Se define elmodelo de Hotelling, con su planteamiento matemático y su respectiva solución gráfica, el cual permite determinar el sendero óptimo de agotamiento de un recurso natural no renovable y una estimación de su precio de mercado. Un marco general sobre la actualidad y perspectivas del carbón térmico colombiano es la base para la aplicación de este modelo a dicho recurso energético, lo que determina, con base en las reservas probadas de carbón térmico en Colombia y su función de demanda, el tiempo de agotamiento y su precio de comercialización.
Abstract: In this paper a description of the relationship between economic thought and natural resources, especially those non-renewable, is presented. The Hotelling model is defined, with its mathematical approach and the respective graphical solution, which determines the optimal path of depletion of a non-renewable natural resource and an estimation of its market price. A general frame for the present situation and prospects for thermal coal in Colombia is the basis for the implementation of this model to this energy resource. Based on the proven reserves of thermal coal in Colombia and its demand function, time depletion and its trading price are determined.
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