ESTIMACIÓN DE LA AMENAZA POR DESLIZAMIENTOS DETONADOS POR SISMOS Y LLUVIA (VALLE DE ABURRÁ-COLOMBIA)
ESTIMACIÓN DE LA AMENAZA POR DESLIZAMIENTOS DETONADOS POR SISMOS Y LLUVIA (VALLE DE ABURRÁ-COLOMBIA)
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RESUMEN
En este artículo se presenta una estimación de la amenaza por deslizamientos detonados por sismos y lluvia en el Valle de Aburrá-Colombia, utilizando una plataforma de sistemas de información geográfica (SIG). Para esto se desarrolló un modelo que considera las características topográficas, geológicas, geotécnicas e hidrológicas de la zona en estudio. El modelo utilizado se basa en el modelo seudoestático de Newmark y utiliza un enfoque probabilista basado en la técnica del primer orden y segundo momento -FOSM-. El proceso calcula la probabilidad de que ocurra un deslizamiento dado que se presente un sismo que produzca una aceleración (Ah), considerando la incertidumbre de los parámetros geotécnicos y las condiciones de saturación del suelo.
ABSTRACT
This article presents an estimation of the hazard by earthquake and rainfall triggered landslides in the Aburrá Valley-Colombia, using a platform for geographic information systems (GIS). For this, it was developed a model that considers the topography, geological, geotechnical and hydrological characteristics of the studied area. The model used is based on the Newmark’s pseudostatic model and uses a probabilistic approach based on the technique of first order and second moment -FOSM-. The process calculates the probability of occurrence of a landslide, triggered by an earthquake that produces an acceleration (Ah), considering the uncertainty of the geotechnical parameters and conditions of soil saturation.
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